Study into future trends in Celtic Seas

Exploring economic growth scenarios and the resulting impacts on environmental, social and economic conditions

ABPmer was commissioned by WWF-UK on behalf of the Celtic Seas Partnership to explore future economic growth scenarios in the Celtic Seas and the resulting impacts on environmental, social and economic conditions.

The study entailed the collation of data and information on historic trends in and the current state of environmental receptors, social factors and economic activities across the Celtic Seas region.

The trends analysis collated data from ten marine sectors to devise 3 scenarios for marine waters over the next 20 years.

We also collated information on key change drivers through a PESTLE analysis and used this information to develop plausible quantitative future scenarios for ten key economic activities linked to the UK National Ecosystem Assessment (NEA) scenarios. These scenarios were then spatialized to facilitate the identification of potential interactions and trade-offs across different sectors and different scenarios.

This information was used at a workshop to explore stakeholder views and seek to build consensus around preferred options for the Celtic Seas. By spatializing the scenarios and quantifying the trade-offs, stakeholders were better able to understand the implications of different options and therefore better enabled to engage with the marine planning process.